Bob Oravec of NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center said weather in new york sits inside a larger setup that is driving severe thunderstorms across a wide swath of the country. He said the pattern is expected to stay active over the next several days as a cold front moves eastward.
That front is drawing warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico into the same area, raising the chance of hail, high winds, flash flooding and possible tornadoes. NOAA forecast severe weather in the U.S. from Wednesday through Saturday, June 14, as of Wednesday, June 10.
Oravec on the forecast
Oravec said, "It’s a really active pattern across the country right now with respect to thunderstorms, and it’s expected to remain pretty active over the next several days." He added, "Anytime you get warm, humid air along a frontal boundary, you often can see thunderstorm activity."
He also said, "This is what’s going to occur over the next several days as this front moves southeastward." The expected path of the front keeps the storm risk moving rather than ending after one round of storms.
Bunting on Midwest storms
Bill Bunting, deputy director of NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center, said, "It’s going to be an afternoon and evening of widespread thunderstorm development," especially in the Midwest and parts of Oklahoma. He said the strongest storms would be capable of producing widespread damaging winds and large hail.
Bunting added, "We have an air mass that is very warm, very moist, very sticky," and said there was concern for tornadoes that would continue through the evening. The forecast also included scattered to numerous thunderstorms and golf-ball-sized hail in some parts of the country.
Weekend cold front
Oravec said active thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front could produce severe weather, flash flooding and dangerous lightning over the next several days. He said, "We know there’s potential over a larger area for these conditions. But when the details are issued for the warnings, they’re typically over smaller areas."
A second cold front is expected over the weekend, and forecasters said the risk of extreme weather may continue in portions of the Central and Southern Plains. The threat spans the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Midwest and some of the Atlantic Coast.
For people in the path of the storms, the practical issue is not the broad regional forecast but the smaller warning zones that follow it. Those warnings will narrow the risk to specific areas as the cold front keeps moving southeastward.
