tallon griekspoor heads into Saturday’s round of 64 at the 2026 ATP Italian Open with Alexander Blockx carrying the stronger model forecast. Stats Insider’s simulation gave Blockx a 61% chance of winning the match after running it 10,000 times.
The betting market also leans his way. TAB priced Griekspoor at $2.75, while Blockx opened at $1.44, and the first-set market listed Griekspoor at $2.50 and Blockx at $1.53.
Blockx’s 61% edge
The forecast is built around the head-to-head matchup, not a broad tournament read. That leaves the round of 64 as a straight price check between two players before the first point is struck at the 2026 ATP Italian Open.
Stats Insider also recommended backing Blockx at $1.83, which gives bettors a second number to compare against the market before Saturday’s start. For readers trying to isolate value, the gap between the model and the bookmaker prices is the most concrete part of this preview.
Tallon Griekspoor at $2.75
Griekspoor’s $2.75 price puts him in the underdog role, with the first-set line moving in the same direction. His opening-set odds of $2.50 trail Blockx’s $1.53, so the market is not treating this as a coin flip.
That setup gives the Dutch player a narrower path to the round of 32. He needs the upset, and the numbers say he will have to do it against a rival that the simulation liked in a 61% split.
Rome start at 1:20am AEST
The match is scheduled to begin at 1:20am AEST on Saturday, so anyone tracking the line will have a late-night start to the Italian Open card. The round of 64 timing matters because these prices sit right on top of the opening exchange before the match gets underway.
For bettors, the practical read is simple: Blockx carries the shorter price, the stronger model projection, and the recommended wager at $1.83. Griekspoor remains the higher-return option at $2.75, but the numbers on the board clearly favor Blockx entering the first round they will play in Rome.
