Hull City parade reached Wembley with a place in the Championship play-off final, leaving them one win from the Premier League. They will face Middlesbrough on Saturday at 3.30pm, live on Sky Sports, after a season that barely looked fit for promotion by the numbers.
Hull City and Ivor Pandur
Hull became the first sixth-placed team to reach the play-off final since 2019. Ivor Pandur has been central to that run, with a 69.2 per cent save percentage and opponents failing to convert 10 chances where they had at least a 50 per cent chance of scoring.
That is the most such let-offs any Championship team has had this season. Hull still conceded 66 goals in the regular season, seven more than relegated Oxford United, and only Leicester, QPR and Wednesday conceded more in the bottom half of the table.
Data Against Hull City
The expected goals data painted a far harsher picture. It suggested Hull should have finished second-bottom, should have picked up 13 fewer points, and should have conceded around 16 more goals than they actually did.
That gap between the numbers and the table is what makes this final unusual. Hull were one game away from dropping to League One this time last year, and now they are one game from the Premier League.
Middlesbrough on Saturday
The road to Wembley also carried a string of narrow escapes that helped keep Hull alive. Kieffer Moore missed two chances in a 2-0 win for Hull over Wrexham in December, Josh Sargent missed a sitter when Norwich drew 0-0 at Hull in November, and Zan Vipotnik missed an open goal when Swansea lost 2-1 to Hull in January.
Mark Harris also missed a close-range chance in stoppage time in a 1-1 draw with Oxford United in April, while Isaac Price missed an open goal in Hull's 1-0 win over West Brom. Hull now have one match to turn a season that defied the data into promotion.
