Current mortgage rates were 6.58% on Sunday night as the 10-year yield slipped to 4.43% after President Trump said a deal had been agreed to with Iran. The move gave borrowers a brief reprieve, but the same market was still pricing a Fed week shaped by inflation above target and a labor market that has improved.
Trump’s Iran Deal Moves Yields
4.43% on the 10-year yield came after the market had pushed the benchmark to 4.68% at the worst levels of the conflict, while mortgage rates had climbed to 6.75%. Trump said on Sunday that “a deal had been agreed to” and that it should be signed on Friday, a development that eased the oil-driven upside risk that had been hanging over rates.
6.58% mortgage rates remained above the lower range the market briefly saw on Friday, when the 10-year yield was in the 4.46% to 4.48% range. Borrowers watching for a lower quote got a quick reaction to the Iran news, but the retreat was still modest after the conflict had already pushed oil prices higher and fed concern that yields could keep moving up.
Warsh Takes Over Before Fed Week
4.35% and 4.24% are the next downside levels for the 10-year yield, and that leaves limited room for mortgage rates to move much lower in the near term if the bond market keeps extending the rally. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, is taking over ahead of Fed week, with the central bank still described as hawkish and with very few doves left.
2026 is the frame the market is using for mortgage pricing, with rates staying on a 6% handle all year and a peak forecast of 6.75%. That leaves would-be homebuyers and refinancers facing a market that improved from its worst point, but not one that has fully reset.
Oil Near $81, Rates Near 6%
$81 oil on Sunday night kept the conflict’s influence visible in the rate market, even after the Iran deal announcement trimmed some pressure. If oil keeps easing and the 10-year yield stays nearer 4.43% than 4.68%, mortgage pricing can keep inching lower; if inflation and stronger labor data dominate Fed week, the 6.58% reading may look more like a pause than a turning point.
