SpaceX’s spacex stock prediction sharpened on June 12 when the company held its initial public offering and ended the session with a $2.11 trillion market cap. The move was powered by a float of less than 5% of shares outstanding, a tight supply that can push a valuation higher faster than broader ownership would allow.
For investors, that means the first day of trading did not just price the company; it set a very high reference point for the stock’s next moves. SpaceX raised $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, so the market was assigning a huge valuation to a relatively small slice of stock.
June 12 pricing at $135
$135 per share was the IPO price that delivered the $75 billion raise. With insiders still holding most of the stock, SpaceX allowed some of them to sell shares before the usual 180-day lockup period ends, which gives the market early access but also limits how much stock is available right away.
Less than 5% of shares outstanding were in the float, so the public market had to set a price on a business where most ownership stayed private. That setup can make the stock harder to gauge from the first close alone, because the trading supply is thin relative to the company’s total scale.
Elon Musk and Tesla at 19%
19% was Elon Musk’s approximate Tesla stake as of April, and Tesla gives the clearest comparison for how ownership structure can shape valuation. Tesla’s float was about 75% of shares outstanding, far larger than SpaceX’s, and Tesla’s all-time intraday peak reached $498.83 on Dec. 22, 2025, when its market cap was around $1.67 trillion.
$2.11 trillion at the June 12 close already put SpaceX above Tesla’s peak value, even before its market cap topped $2.5 trillion at Monday’s close. The contrast is stark: Tesla’s broader float and larger public market history still produced a lower peak valuation than SpaceX’s first-day close, which shows how aggressively the IPO market was pricing the newer stock.
SpaceX revenue and loss
33.2% was SpaceX’s revenue growth in 2025, when sales reached $18.67 billion. That growth came alongside a swing in profitability: net income moved from a $791 million profit in 2024 to a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025, a combination that makes the valuation debate less about past earnings and more about what the market is willing to pay for future scale.
134 was SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue, a level that leaves little room for ordinary execution. If the float expands from here, the same demand that pushed the June 12 close higher could be matched by more stock available to trade, and that is where the price test becomes less forgiving.
Tesla’s 2026 earnings path
$2.06 per share is the analyst estimate for Tesla’s 2026 earnings, rising to $2.50 per share in 2027 on sales of $118.45 billion. Tesla’s forward price-to-earnings ratio was 162.4, and its first-quarter deliveries were up 6.3% year over year even as energy storage product deployments fell 15.4%.
$4.30 was Tesla’s all-time high annual earnings per share in 2023, a reminder that its valuation has already run far ahead of its historical profit peak. For anyone choosing between the two Musk-led names in June, the practical difference is ownership structure: Tesla trades with a 75% float, while SpaceX started public life with less than 5% of shares outstanding, a setup that can keep the price moving sharply until more stock comes to market.
