pirates vs diamondbacks opens with Pittsburgh carrying 27 runs in 3 games into the series preview, a stretch that snapped a 5-game losing streak and changed the tone around a club that was still last in its division. Arizona comes in at 16-17, but the matchup is being viewed through the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, rotation, and lineup numbers rather than the record alone.
Pittsburgh’s 27-Run Surge
The Pirates scored 27 runs over the weekend against the Reds, with Nick Gonzales and Konnor Griffin drawing attention for hot stretches over the past two weeks. That burst ended a skid in which Pittsburgh scored only 18 runs during the 5-game losing streak, and it moved the offense back into the conversation after a start built around survival rather than production.
Last year, Pittsburgh finished 28th in the league by fWAR and hit 117 home runs, the fewest in baseball and 31 behind the St. Louis Cardinals. This year the same unit has moved into the top 10 in MLB by both fWAR and wRC+, and the lineup has produced a 100+ OPS+ everywhere except catcher and designated hitter.
Arizona’s Numbers Under Lovullo
Arizona’s case rests on a set of underlying numbers that do not match a 16-17 record. The bullpen has 0.3 fWAR, sits 19th, and carries a.263 BABIP, while the rotation has 0.4 fWAR, ranks 30th, and has a.311 BABIP. The offense has supplied 3.5 fWAR, and the club was 16-14 before getting swept by the Cubs.
That uneven profile has already shown up in the results. The Diamondbacks also lost to the White Sox, were swept by the Dodgers, and dropped a game against every NL East opponent, which leaves little margin for error even if the roster looks stronger than the standings suggest.
Diamondbacks Need Clean Innings
Brandon Lowe has a 141 OPS+, Bryan Reynolds 136, Ryan O’Hearn 141, and Oneil Cruz 126, so Pittsburgh’s order no longer reads like the one that finished near the bottom last season. Marcell Ozuna still has not found his groove in Pittsburgh, which adds one more layer to a lineup that has improved without fully smoothing out every spot.
The saving issue has not disappeared. Pittsburgh has only 5 saves and is almost at the league low, so the same club that has started scoring again still has to protect leads without much cushion behind it. Torey Lovullo and Arizona are trying to play spoiler against a team whose offense has finally given it a reason to be taken seriously, and that makes the margin in this matchup tighter than the records suggest.
