Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the nba mvp race at 45.1%, putting the Oklahoma City Thunder guard ahead of Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama in a model built from historical NBA seasons. The number leaves him as the clear favorite among the three finalists for the 2025-26 NBA MVP award.
Gilgeous-Alexander Ahead Of Jokic
Gilgeous-Alexander’s 45.1% projection tops Jokic’s 24.4% and Wembanyama’s 8.6%. That gap puts the Thunder point guard in position to repeat as the league’s top individual prize after winning it for the first time last season.
He also led an NBA championship season last year, so his case is built on more than one award cycle. The model is not guessing from a blank slate; it is weighing prior seasons and treating the current finalists as a closed field.
Jokic’s 2021, 2022, 2024 Run
Jokic remains the most decorated name in the race. He won the NBA MVP award in 2021, 2022 and 2024, and that track record keeps him firmly in range even with Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him in the projection.
The model’s spread shows how the pecking order has shifted. Jokic is the clear second choice, but the 20.7-point gap between him and Gilgeous-Alexander is large enough to make the leader’s hold on the race look real rather than cosmetic.
Wembanyama At 8.6%
Wembanyama sits at 8.6% after already becoming a unanimous winner of this season’s NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. That gives the San Antonio Spurs center a separate headline accomplishment, even if the MVP projection places him well behind the top two.
The three finalists are set, the ballots are in and the numbers are no longer moving. For readers tracking the race, the model’s read is simple: Gilgeous-Alexander has the best path, Jokic is the main challenger, and Wembanyama’s MVP chances trail by a wide margin despite his defensive honor.
